Simpson’s Paradox

The Simpson’s Paradox occurs when parts of the data show one trend but the combined one shows another.

For example, you ran a between-subject study testing whether a tool helps college students solve hard math problems. The data shows the percentage of female and male students who finished their problems using or without your tool:

Female Male Combined
No tool 45/60 = 75% 5/10 = 50% 50/70 = 71%
Using your tool 8/10 = 80% 36/60 = 60% 44/70 = 63%

Let alone the validity of your study design, it shows the paradox: individually your tool seems to work on both female and male students (80%>70% and 60%>50); yet when combining them it shows the opposite (63%<70%).

Simpson's paradox, Statistics

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